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  ¹øÈ£ 188273  ±Û¾´ÀÌ ÇÏ·ç  Á¶È¸ 821  ´©¸® 11 (15,4, 3:1:1)  µî·ÏÀÏ 2018-1-14 18:15 ´ë¹® 0

Hawaii False Alarm Hints at Thin Line Between Mishap and Nuclear War
ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ ¿Àº¸(è¦ÜÃ)´Â ½Ç¼ö¿Í ÇÙÀüÀïÀÌ Á¾ÀÌ ÇÑÀå Â÷ÀÌÀÓÀ» ½Ã»çÇÑ´Ù.

By MAX FISHER JAN. 14, 2018

Nuclear experts are warning, using some of their most urgent language since President Trump took office, that Hawaii¡¯s false alarm, in which state agencies alerted locals to a nonexistent missile attack, underscores a growing risk of unintended nuclear war with North Korea.

ÇÙ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌñ¶ ±â°üµéÀÌ Áֹε鿡°Ô ÀÖÁöµµ ¾ÊÀº ¹Ì»çÀÏ °ø°ÝÀ» °æº¸¸¦ ¹ß(Û¡)ÇÑ ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ ¿Àº¸(è¦ÜÃ)°¡ Á¡ÁõÇÏ´Â ºÏÇÑ°úÀÇ ÀǵµÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº ÇÙÀüÀï À§ÇèÀ» º¸¿©ÁÖ¾ú´Ù°í, Æ®·³ÇÁÀÇ ÃëÀÓ ÀÌÈÄ °¡Àå ´Ù±ÞÇÑ ¾ð¾î¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ¿© °æ°íÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

To understand the connection, which might not be obvious, you need to go back to the tragedy of Korean Air Lines Flight 007.

ºÐ¸íÇÏÁö´Â ¾ÊÀ»Áö¶óµµ, ±× ¿¬°ü¼ºÀ» ÀÌÇØÇϱâ À§Çؼ­, 1983³âÀÇ KAL 007Æí ºñ±ØÀ¸·Î µ¹¾Æ°¥ ÇÊ¿ä°¡ ÀÖ´Ù.

In 1983, a Korean airliner bound from Anchorage to Seoul, South Korea, strayed into Soviet airspace. Air defense officers, mistaking it for an American spy plane that had been loitering nearby, tried to establish contact. They fired warning shots. When no response came, they shot it down, killing all 269 people on board.

1983³â¿¡, ¾ÞÄ¿¸®Áö¸¦ Ãâ¹ßÇØ ¼­¿ï·Î ÇâÇÏ´ø ´ëÇÑÇ×°ø ºñÇà±â´Â ¼Ò·Ã ¿µ°øÀ¸·Î À߸ø Á¢¾îµé¾ú´Ù.¼Ò·ÃÀÇ ¿µ°ø ¹æÀ§ Àå±³µéÀº ´ëÇÑÇ×°ø ºñÇà±â¸¦, ±× ±Ùó¸¦ ¾î½½··°Å·Á¿Ô´ø ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ Á¤Âû±â·Î ¿ÀÇØÇÏ°í ¿¬¶ôÀ» ÃëÇÏ·Á°í ¾Ö½è´Ù. ±×µéÀº °æ°í»ç°ÝÀ» Çß´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¾Æ¹«·± ´äÀÌ ¾øÀÚ, ±×µéÀº ºñÇà±â¸¦ °ÝÃßÇß°í , ºñÇà±â¿¡ Ÿ°íÀÖ´ø 269¸íÀÌ Á×¾ú´Ù.

But the graver lesson may be what happened next. Though it was quickly evident that the downing had been a mistake, mutual distrust and the logic of nuclear deterrence — more so than the deaths themselves — set Washington and Moscow heading toward a conflict neither wanted.

ÇÏÁö¸¸ ´õ ½É°¢ÇÑ ±³ÈÆÀº ±× ´ÙÀ½¿¡ ÀϾ »çÅÂÀÎÁöµµ ¸ð¸¥´Ù. °ð °ÝÃß´Â (¿ÀÇØ¿¡¼­ ºñ·ÔµÈ) ½Ç¼ö¿´À½ÀÌ ¸í¹éÇØÁ³À½¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í, ¿©°´±â ½Â°´µéÀÇ »ç¸Á ÀÚüº¸´Ù (¹Ì¼Ò°£ÀÇ) »óÈ£ ºÒ½Å°ú ÇÙ ¾ïÁö(nuclear deterrence) ³í¸®°¡ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ°ú ¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù¸¦ ±×µé ¸ðµÎ ¿øÄ¡¾Ê´ø Ãæµ¹·Î ÇâÇÏ°Ô Çß´Ù.

The story illustrated how imperfect information, aggressive defense postures and minutes-long response times brought both sides hurtling toward possible nuclear war — a set of dynamics that can feel disconcertingly familiar today.

±× À̾߱â´Â, ºÒ¿ÏÀüÇÑ Á¤º¸, °ø°ÝÀûÀÎ ¹æ¾îż¼ ±×¸®°í ¼öºÐ¿¡ ºÒ°úÇÑ ´ëÀÀ ½Ã°£µéÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ¾ç Áø¿µÀ» °¡´ÉÇÑ ÇÙÀüÀï(possible nuclear war)À¸·Î µ¹ÁøÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé¾ú´ÂÁö¸¦ º¸¿©ÁÖ¾ú´Ù.- ¿À´Ã ¾î¸®µÕÀýÇÏ°Ôµµ ºñ½ÁÇÏ´Ù°í ´À²¸Áú ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ ¿ªÇÐ(æ³ùÊ)À».

Ronald Reagan had taken office in 1981 pledging to confront the Soviet Union. Though he intended to deter Soviet aggression, Moscow read his threats and condemnations — he had declared its government an ¡°evil empire¡± that must be brought to an end — as preludes to war.

·Î³Îµå ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ¼Ò·Ã°ú ´ë°áÀ» °ø¾àÇϸç 1981³â¿¡ ÃëÀÓÇß´Ù. ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ¼Ò·ÃÀÇ °ø°ÝÀ» ¾ïÁö(deter)ÇÒ Àǵµ¿´Áö¸¸, ¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù´Â ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀÇ À§Çù°ú ºñ³­- ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ¼Ò·Ã Á¤ºÎ¸¦ Á¾¸»½ÃÄѾßÇÒ "¾ÇÀÇ Á¦±¹"À¸·Î ¼±¾ðÇß¾ú´Ù-À» ÀüÀïÀÇ ÀüÁÖ°îÀ¸·Î Àоú´Ù.

Mr. Trump¡¯s White House has issued its own threats against North Korea, suggesting that it might pursue war to halt the country¡¯s nuclear weapons development.

Æ®·³ÇÁÀÇ ¹é¾Ç°üÀº, ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ ¹«±â °³¹ßÀ» ¸ØÃß°Ô Çϱâ À§ÇØ ÀüÀïÀ» Ãß±¸ÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù°í ½Ã»çÇϸç,ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇØ À§ÇùÀ» ÇØ¿Ô´Ù.

The 1983 shooting down, on its own, might have passed as a terrible mistake. But the superpowers had only fragmentary understanding of something that had happened on the far fringes of Soviet territory. In an atmosphere of distrust, technical and bureaucratic snafus drove each to suspect the other of deception.

1983³âÀÇ °ÝÃß´Â ±× ÀÚü·Î´Â ½É°¢ÇÑ ½Ç¼ö¶ó°í Áö³ª°¬À»Áöµµ ¸ð¸¥´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¹Ì¼Ò ¾ç ÃÊ°­´ë±¹Àº ¼Ò·Ã ±Øµ¿ ¿µÅä¿¡¼­ ¹ß»ýÇß´ø ÀÏ¿¡ ´ëÇØ ´ÜÆíÀûÀÎ ÀÌÇظ¸ °¡Á³´Ù. ºÒ½ÅÀÇ ºÐÀ§±â ¼Ó¿¡¼­ ±â¼úÀû, °ü·áÀû ´ëÈ¥¶õÀº ¼­·Î »ó´ë¹æÀÇ ±â¸Á(ѧØÍ)À» ÀǽÉÇÏ°Ô ¸ô¾Æ°¬´Ù.

Moscow received contradictory reports as to whether its pilots had shot down an airliner or a spy plane, and Soviet leaders were biased toward trusting their own. So when they declared it a legal interception of an American military incursion, American leaders, who knew this to be false, assumed Soviet leaders were lying. Moscow had downed the airliner deliberately, some concluded, in an act of undeclared war.

¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù´Â °ø±º±â Á¶Á¾»çµéÀÌ Ç×°ø±â¸¦ °ÝÃßÇß´ÂÁö ¾Æ´Ï¸é Á¤Âû±â¸¦ °ÝÃßÇß´ÂÁö¿¡ ´ëÇØ »ó¹ÝµÇ´Â º¸°í¸¦ ¹Þ¾Ò´Ù. ±×¸®°í ¼Ò·Ã ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ÀÚ±âÀڽŵéÀ» ¹Ï´Â ÂÊÀ¸·Î ÆíÇâµÇ¾ú´Ù. ±×·¡¼­ ±×µéÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ±º»çÀû ½À°Ý¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Àû¹ýÇÑ ¿ä°ÝÀ̶ó°í ¼±¾ðÇßÀ» ¶§, ÀÌ°ÍÀÌ »ç½ÇÀÌ ¾Æ´ÔÀ» ¾Ë°í ÀÖ´ø ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ¼Ò·Ã ÁöµµÀÚµéÀÌ °ÅÁþ¸»À» ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ÃßÁ¤Çß´Ù. ¸î¸îÀº ¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù°¡ (°³Àü)¼±¾ðÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº ÀüÀï ÇàÀ§·Î ÀǵµÀûÀ¸·Î Ç×°ø±â¸¦ °ÝÃßÇß´Ù°í °á·ÐÁö¾ú´Ù.

At the same time, Washington made a nearly perfect mirror-image set of mistakes — suggesting that such misreadings are not just possible, but dangerously likely.

µ¿½Ã¿¡, À§½ÌÅÏÀº (¼Ò·Ã°ú) °ÅÀÇ ¿Ïº®È÷ ¶È°°Àº ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ ½Ç¼ö¸¦ Çß´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ±×·¯ÇÑ ¿ÀÇØ(è¦ú°)µéÀÌ °¡´ÉÇÒ »Ó¸¸ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó, À§ÇèÇÏ°Ôµµ °³¿¬¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ½Ã»çÇÑ´Ù.

Mr. Reagan, furious at the loss of life, accused Moscow of deliberately targeting the civilian airliner. He denounced Soviet society itself as rotten and in pursuit of world domination.

·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº »ç¶÷µéÀÌ Á×Àº °Í¿¡ ºÐ³ëÇؼ­, ¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù°¡ ¹Î°£Ç×°ø±â¸¦ °èȹÀûÀ¸·Î Ÿ°ÙÀ¸·Î »ï¾Ò´Ù°í °í¹ßÇß´Ù. ±×´Â ¼Ò·Ã »çȸ ÀÚü¸¦ ½â¾ú´Ù°í, ¼¼°è Áö¹è¸¦ Ãß±¸ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ¸Í·ÄÈ÷ ºñ³­Çß´Ù.

In fact, a C.I.A. assessment, included in the president¡¯s daily briefing that morning, had concluded the incident was likely an error. Mr. Reagan appeared to have simply missed it.

»ç½Ç, ±×³¯ ¾ÆħÀÇ ´ëÅë·É ÀÏÀÏ ºê¸®Çο¡ Æ÷ÇÔµÈ CIAÀÇ Æò°¡´Â ±× »ç°ÇÀº ½Ç¼öÀÏ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù°í °á·Ð³»·È¾ú´Ù. ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ´ÜÁö ±×°ÍÀ» ¸øº¸°í ³õÄ£ °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸¿´´Ù.

But Soviet leaders had never considered this; they assumed Mr. Reagan was lying about their intentions. Some concluded he had somehow lured the Soviet Union into downing the aircraft as cover for a massive pre-emptive attack, which they feared might come at any moment.

ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¼Ò·Ã ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ÀÌ°ÍÀ» ÀüÇô °í·ÁÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò¾ú´Ù: ±×µéÀº ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀÌ ÀڽŵéÀÇ Àǵµ¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ÅÁþ¸»À» ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ÃßÁ¤Çß´Ù. ¸î¸îÀº ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀÌ ´ë±Ô¸ð ¼±Á¦°ø°ÝÀ» À§ÇÑ ¼ÓÀÓ¼ö·Î ¾î¶»°Ôµç ¼Ò·ÃÀ» ²Ò¾î¼­ Ç×°ø±â¸¦ °ÝÃßÇÏ°Ô Çß´Ù°í °á·Ð³»·È´Ù. ±×°ÍÀº ±×µéÀÌ ¾ðÁ¦¶óµµ ¹ß»ýÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í µÎ·Á¿öÇÏ´ø °ÍÀ̾ú´Ù..

Each read the other¡¯s blundering and dissembling as intentional, deepening suspicions among hard-liners that the other side was laying the groundwork for war. And if war was coming, the logic of nuclear deterrence all but required firing first.

¹Ì¼Ò ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº °¢°¢ »ó´ëÆíÀÇ ½Ç¼ö¿Í ¼û±â´Â °Í(dissembling)À» ÀǵµÀûÀ̶ó Àаí, °­°æÆÄ »çÀÌ¿¡¼­´Â »ó´ëÆíÀÌ ÀüÀïÀ» À§ÇÑ ÁغñÀÛ¾÷À» ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â ÀǽÉÀ» ±íÈ÷ Çß´Ù. ±×¸®°í ÀüÀïÀÌ ÀϾ°Ô µÇ¸é, ÇÙ ¾ïÁö(nuclear deterrence)ÀÇ ³í¸®´Â °ÅÀÇ ¼±Á¦ Ÿ°ÝÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇß´Ù.

Nuclear-armed missiles had recently achieved a level of speed and capability so that one power could completely disarm another in a matter of minutes. This created something called first-strike instability, in which firing first — even if you think you might be firing in error — is the only way to be sure of preventing your own obliteration.

ÇÙÀåÂø ¹Ì»çÀϵéÀº ÃÖ±Ù, ÇÑ °­´ë±¹ÀÌ ¸î ºÐ¾È¿¡ ´Ù¸¥ °­´ë±¹À» ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ ¹«ÀåÇØÁ¦½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¼öÁØÀÇ ¼Óµµ¿Í ´É·ÂÀ» ¼ºÃëÇß´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¼±Á¦Å¸°Ý ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤(first-strike instability)À̶ó ºÒ¸®¿ì´Â »óȲÀ» ¸¸µé¾ú´Ù. ±× ¼Ó¿¡¼­´Â ¸ÕÀú ¹ß»çÇÏ´Â °Í(¼±Á¦Å¸°Ý)ÀÌ-ÀÚ½ÅÀÌ ½Ç¼ö·Î ¹ß»çÇÏ°í ÀÖ´ÂÁö ¸ð¸¥´Ù°í »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù ÇÏ´õ¶óµµ-ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ Àü¸êÀ» ¸·´Â °ÍÀ» È®½ÅÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â À¯ÀÏÇÑ ±æÀÌ´Ù.

The result was that the United States and the Soviet Union repeatedly went to the brink of war over provocations or even technical misreadings. Often, officials had mere minutes to decide whether to retaliate against seemingly real or impending attacks without being able to fully verify whether an attack was actually underway. In the logic of nuclear deterrence, firing would have been the rational choice.

±× °á°ú ¹Ì±¹°ú ¼Ò·ÃÀº µµ¹ß(provocations)°ú ±â¼úÀû ¿Àµ¶(è¦ÔÁ) ¶§¹®¿¡ ¹Ýº¹ÀûÀ¸·Î ÀüÀï Á÷Àü±îÁö °¬´Ù. Á¾Á¾, °ü¸®µéÀº ½ÇÁ¦Ã³·³ º¸À̰ųª ÀÓ¹ÚÇÑ °ø°Ý¿¡ ´ëÇØ, ±× °ø°ÝÀÌ ½ÇÁ¦ ÁøÇàÁßÀÎÁö ¾Æ´ÑÁö¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ È®ÀÎÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ°í, ´ÜÁö ¸îºÐ ¾È¿¡ º¸º¹°ø°ÝÀ» ÇÒ °ÍÀÎÁö¸¦ °áÁ¤ÇؾßÇß´Ù. ÇÙ ¾ïÁöÀÇ ³í¸®¿¡¼­´Â ¹ß»ç(firing)°¡ ÇÕ¸®Àû ¼±ÅÃÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀ̾ú´Ù.

That dynamic is heightened with North Korea, which is thought to have only a few dozen warheads and so must fire them immediately to prevent their destruction in the event of war.

±× ¿ªÇÐ(æ³ùÊ)ÀÌ ºÏÇÑ°ú °íÁ¶µÇ¾ú´Ù. ºÏÇÑÀº ´ÜÁö ¼ö½Ê°³ÀÇ ÇÙźµÎ¸¦ °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î »ý°¢µÇ°í, ºÏÇÑÀº ÀüÀïÀÌ ³¯ °æ¿ì ÀڽŵéÀÇ Æı«¸¦ ¹æÁöÇϱâ À§ÇØ Áï°¢ÀûÀ¸·Î ±×µéÀ» ¹ß»çÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù.

¡°Today¡¯s false alarm in Hawaii is a reminder of the big risks we continue to run by relying on nuclear deterrence/prompt launch nuclear posture,¡± Kingston Reif, an analyst with the Arms Control Association, wrote on Twitter, referring to the strategy of firing quickly in a war. ¡°And while deterring/containing North Korea is far preferable to preventive war, it¡¯s not risk free. And it could fail.¡±

"ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ¿¡¼­ÀÇ ¿À´ÃÀÇ ¿Àº¸(è¦ÜÃ)´Â ÇÙ ¾ïÁö¿Í ½Å¼ÓÇÑ ¹ß»ç Ç٠ż¼¿¡ ÀÇÁ¸Çϸ鼭 °è¼ÓÇؼ­ ¹«¸­¾²°í ÀÖ´Â Å« À§ÇèµéÀ» »ó±â½ÃÄÑÁØ´Ù."°í ±ºÃàÇùȸ(Arms Control Association)¿Í ÇÔ²²ÇÏ´Â ºÐ¼®°¡ Å·½ºÅÏ ¶óÀÌÇÁ´Â Æ®À§ÅÍ¿¡ ½è´Ù. ÀüÀï ãÁ ºü¸£°Ô ¹ß»çÇÏ´Â Àü·«À» ¾ð±ÞÇϸç. " ±×¸®°í ºÏÇÑÀ» ¾ïÁö/ ºÀ¼âÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ¿¹¹æÀüÀﺸ´Ù ÈξÀ ¼±È£µÇÁö¸¸, ±×°ÍÀÌ À§ÇèÀÌ ¾ø´Â °ÍÀº ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. ±×¸®°í ±×°ÍÀº ½ÇÆÐÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù"

If similar misunderstandings seem implausible today, consider that an initial White House statement called Hawaii¡¯s alert an exercise — though state officials say it was operator error. Consider that 38 minutes elapsed before emergency systems sent a second message announcing the mistake. If even Washington was misreading events, the confusion in Pyongyang must have been far greater.

¿À´ÃÀÇ °æ¿ì ºñ½ÁÇÑ ¿ÀÇش Ÿ´çÄ¡ ¾Ê¾Æ º¸ÀÌ´õ¶óµµ, ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ °æº¸¸¦ ÈÆ·ÃÀ̶ó ºÎ¸¥ ¹é¾Ç°üÀÇ ÃÖÃÊ ¼º¸íÀ» °í·ÁÇغ¸¶ó.-ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ ÁÖ °ü¸®µéÀº ±×°ÍÀÌ ¿î¿µÀÚ ½Ç¼ö¶ó°í ¸»Çß´Ù. ºñ»ó½Ã½ºÅÛÀÌ Ã¹¹ø° °æº¸°¡ ½Ç¼ö¶ó°í ¾Ë¸®´Â µÎ¹ø° ¸Þ½ÃÁö¸¦ º¸³»±â Àü¿¡ 39ºÐÀÌ Áö³µ´ø °ÍÀ» °í·ÁÇغ¸¶ó. ¿ö½ÌÅÏÁ¶Â÷µµ ±× »ç°ÇÀ» ¿ÀÇØÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾ú´Ù¸é, Æò¾çÀÇ È¥¶õÀº ±× º¸´Ù ÈξÀ ÄÇÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

Had the turmoil unfolded during a major crisis or period of heightened threats, North Korean leaders could have misread the Hawaiian warning as cover for an attack, much as the Soviets had done in 1983. American officials have been warning for weeks that they might attack North Korea. Though some analysts consider this a likely bluff, officials in Pyongyang have little room for error.

±× ¼Ò¶õÀÌ Áß¿äÇÑ À§±â ¶Ç´Â À§ÇùÀÌ °íÁ¶µÈ ½Ã±â Áß¿¡ ¹ß»ýÇß´Ù¸é, ºÏÇÑ ÁöµµÀÚµéÀº ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ °æº¸¸¦ (ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ) °ø°ÝÀ» À§ÇÑ ¼ÓÀÓ¼ö·Î ¿ÀÇØÇßÀ» ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¼Ò·ÃÀÌ 1983³â¿¡ ±×·¨´ø °Íó·³. ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ °ü¸®µéÀº ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ºÏÇÑÀ» °ø°ÝÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù°í ¼öÁÖ¿¡ °ÉÃÄ °æ°íÇØ¿Ô´Ù. ¸î¸î ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº À̸¦ ºí·¯Çΰ°´Ù°í ¿©°åÁö¸¸, Æò¾çÀÇ °ü¸®µéÀº ½Ç¼ö°¡ ¿ë³³µÇÁö ¾Ê´Â´Ù.

Vipin Narang, a nuclear scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, suggested another possible scenario, using shorthand terms to refer to the president and his nuclear command systems, which Mr. Trump has nearby at all times.

¸Å»þÃò¼¼Ã÷ ±â¼ú¿¬±¸¼ÒÀÇ ÇÙ ÇÐÀÚÀÎ ºñÇÉ ³ª¶ûÀº ´ëÅë·É°ú Ç×»ó ±×ÀÇ °ç¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ÇÙ Áö·É ½Ã½ºÅÛÀ» ÁöĪÇÏ´Â ¾àĪÀ» »ç¿ëÇؼ­ ´Ù¸¥ °¡´ÉÇÑ ½Ã³ª¸®¿À¸¦ Á¦½ÃÇß´Ù.

¡°POTUS sees alert on his phone about an incoming toward Hawaii, pulls out the biscuit, turns to his military aide with the football and issues a valid and authentic order to launch nuclear weapons at North Korea,¡± Mr. Narang wrote on Twitter, adding, ¡°Think it can¡¯t happen?¡±

"POTUS(¹Ì±¹´ëÅë·É)°¡ ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ·Î (¹Ì»çÀÏÀÌ) ¿À°íÀÖ´Ù´Â °æº¸ ¸Þ½ÃÁö¸¦ ÀüÈ­·Î º»´Ù. ±×´Â ºñ½ºÅ¶À» ¹°¸®°í, ´ºÅ¬¸®¾î Dzº¼(Nuclear Football)·Î ºÒ¸®´Â ÇÙ°¡¹æÀ» °¡Áö°í ÀÖ´Â ±×ÀÇ ±º»çº¸Á°üÀ» ÇâÇØ ºÏÇÑ¿¡ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ ¹ß»çÇ϶ó°í, À¯È¿ÇÏ°í ÀÎÁõµÈ ¸í·ÉÀ» ³»¸°´Ù."°í ºñÇÉ ³ª¶ûÀº Æ®À§ÅÍ¿¡ ½è´Ù. " ÀÌ·± ÀÏÀº ¹ß»ýÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´Ù°í »ý°¢Çϳª?"°í µ¡ºÙÀ̸鼭.

Unlike in 1983, no one died in Hawaii¡¯s false alarm. But deaths are not necessary for a mistake to lead to war. Just three months after the airliner was shot down, a Soviet early warning system falsely registered a massive American launch. Nuclear war may have only been averted because the Soviet officer in charge, operating purely on a hunch, reported it as an error.

1983³â°ú´Â ´Þ¸®, ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌ ¿Àº¸(è¦ÜÃ)·Î ¾Æ¹«µµ Á×Áö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ½Ç¼ö°¡ ÀüÀïÀ¸·Î À̾îÁö°Ô µÇ´Âµ¥´Â »ç¶÷ÀÇ Á×À½ÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ °ÍÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. Ç×°ø±â°¡ °ÝÃßµÈ ÈÄ ´ÜÁö 3°³¿ù ÈÄ¿¡ ¼Ò·ÃÀÇ Á¶±â °æº¸½Ã½ºÅÛÀº ´ë±Ô¸ð ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ (¹Ì»çÀÏ) ¹ß»ç¸¦ À߸ø ±â·ÏÇß´Ù. ÇÙÀüÀïÀº, ¿À·ÎÁö ¼Ò·ÃÀÇ Ã¥ÀÓ Àå±³°¡ ¼øÀüÈ÷ Á÷°¨¿¡ µû¶ó ±×°ÍÀ» ¿¡·¯¶ó°í º¸°íÇ߱⠶§¹®¿¡ ÇÇÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ¾ú´ÂÁö ¸ð¸¥´Ù.

North Korea is far more vulnerable than the Soviet Union was to a nuclear strike, giving its officers an even narrower window to judge events and even greater incentive to fire first. And, unlike the Soviets, who maintained global watch systems and spy networks, North Korea operates in relative blindness.

ºÏÇÑÀº (»ó´ë¹æÀÇ)ÇÙ °ø°Ý¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¼Ò·Ãº¸´Ù ÈξÀ ´õ Ãë¾àÇÏ´Ù. ºÏÇѱº Àå±³µéÀº »ç°ÇµéÀ» ÆÇ´ÜÇÒ ÈξÀ ´õ Á¼Àº â¹®ÀÌ ÁÖ¾îÁö°í ÈξÀ Å« ¼±Á¦ °ø°Ý Àμ¾Æ¼ºê°¡ ÁÖ¾îÁø´Ù. ±×¸®°í ¼¼°èÀûÀÎ °¨½Ã ½Ã½ºÅÛ°ú Á¤Âû ³×Æ®¿öÅ©¸¦ À¯ÁöÇß´ø ¼Ò·Ã°ú ´Þ¸® ºÏÇÑÀº »ó´ëÀû ¹«Áö ¼Ó¿¡¼­ ¿î¿ëÇÑ´Ù.

For all the power of nuclear weapons, scholars say their gravest dangers come from the uncertainty they create and the fallibility of human operators, who must read every signal perfectly for mutual deterrence to hold.

ÇÙ¹«±âÀÇ Èû¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í, ÇÐÀÚµéÀº ±×°ÍµéÀÇ °¡Àå ½É°¢ÇÑ À§ÇèÀº ±×°ÍÀÌ ¸¸µé¾î³»´Â ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º°ú, »óÈ£ ¾ïÁö(mutual deterrence)°¡ À¯ÁöµÇµµ·Ï Çϱâ À§ÇØ ¸ðµç ½ÅÈ£¸¦ Á¤È®ÇÏ°Ô Àоî¾ßÇÏ´Â Àΰ£ ¿î¿ëÀÚµéÀÌ ¿À·ù¸¦ ÀúÁö¸¦ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ ¿Â´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù.

In 1983, Washington and Moscow took steps that heightened the uncertainty, darkly hinting at each other¡¯s illegitimacy and threats of massive retaliation, in a contest for nuclear supremacy, and survival. Each was gambling they could go to the brink without human error pushing them over.

1983³â¿¡ ¿ö½ÌÅÏ°ú ¸ð½ºÅ©¹Ù´Â, ÇÙ ¿ìÀ§¿Í »ýÁ¸ °æÀï ¼Ó¿¡¼­ ¼­·ÎÀÇ À§¹ý(êÞÛö)°ú ´ë±Ô¸ð º¸º¹ À§ÇùÀ» Çè¾ÇÇÏ°Ô ½Ã»çÇϸç, ºÒÈ®½Ç¼ºÀ» ³ôÀÌ´Â ´Ü°è¸¦ ¹â¾Ò´Ù. ±×µé °¢°¢Àº, Àΰ£Àû ½Ç¼ö·Î ±× ÀÌ»óÀ» ³Ñ¾î°¡´Â ÀÏÀÌ ¾øÀÌ, º­¶û³¡±îÁö °¥ ¼ö Àִµ¥±îÁö °¡¸é¼­ µµ¹ÚÀ» Çß´Ù.

William J. Perry, a defense secretary under President Bill Clinton, called the false alarm in Hawaii a reminder that ¡°the risk of accidental nuclear war is not hypothetical — accidents have happened in the past, and humans will err again.¡±

ºô Ŭ¸°ÅÍ ÇàÁ¤ºÎ¿¡¼­ ±¹¹æÀå°üÀ̾ú´ø Àª¸®¾ö Æ丮´Â ÇÏ¿ÍÀÌÀÇ ¿Àº¸(è¦ÜÃ)¸¦ " µ¹¹ßÀûÀÎ ÇÙÀüÀï À§ÇèÀÌ °¡Á¤(Ê£ïÒ)ÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¸ç, »ç°í´Â °ú°Å¿¡ ¹ß»ýÇØ¿ÔÀ¸¸ç, »ç¶÷µéÀº ´Ù½Ã ½Ç¼öÇÏ°Ô ¸¶·ÃÀÌ´Ù"´Â °ÍÀ» »ó±â½ÃÄÑÁÖ´Â °ÍÀ̶ó ºÒ·¶´Ù.

Mr. Reagan concluded the same, writing in his memoirs, ¡°The KAL incident demonstrated how close the world had come to the nuclear precipice and how much we needed nuclear arms control.¡±

·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ±×ÀÇ È¸°í·Ï¿¡¼­ " KAL±â »ç°ÇÀº ¼¼°è°¡ ÇÙ º­¶û¿¡ ¾ó¸¶³ª °¡±îÀÌ °¬¾úÀ¸¸ç, ¿ì¸®°¡ ¾ó¸¶³ª ÇÙ ¹«±â ÅëÁ¦°¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ Áö¸¦ º¸¿©ÁÖ¾ú´Ù"°í ¾²¸é¼­ ¶È°°Àº °á·ÐÀ» ³»·È´Ù.

Mikhail Gorbachev, who soon after took over the Soviet Union, had the same response, later telling the journalist David Hoffman, ¡°A war could start not because of a political decision, but just because of some technical failure.¡±

" ¼Ò·ÃÀ» °ð À̾î¹ÞÀº ¹ÌÇÏÀÏ °í¸£¹ÙÃÊÇÁ´Â ³ªÁß ¾ð·ÐÀÎÀÎ µ¥À̺ñµå È£ÇÁ¸¸¿¡°Ô " ÀüÀïÀº Á¤Ä¡Àû °áÁ¤ ¶§¹®ÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó, ¸î¸î ±â¼úÀû ½ÇÆÐ ¶§¹®¿¡ ½ÃÀÛµÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù"°í ¸»Çϸ鼭 ¶È°°Àº ¹ÝÀÀÀ» Çß´Ù.

Mr. Gorbachev and Mr. Reagan reduced their country¡¯s stockpiles and repeatedly sought, though never quite reached, an agreement to banish nuclear weapons from the world.

°í¸£¹ÙÃÊÇÁ¿Í ·¹ÀÌ°ÇÀº ¼Ò·Ã°ú ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÇÙ¹«±â ºñÃà·®À» ÁÙ¿´°í, °áÄÚ ¿ÏÀüÈ÷ µµ´ÞÇÏÁö´Â ¸øÇßÁö¸¸, ¼¼°è·ÎºÎÅÍ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Æó±âÇÏ´Â ÇùÁ¤À» ¹Ýº¹ÀûÀ¸·Î Ãß±¸Çß´Ù.

But Mr. Trump and North Korea¡¯s leader, Kim Jong-un, remain locked in 1983, issuing provocations and threats of nuclear strikes on push-button alert, gambling that their luck, and ours, will continue to hold.

ÇÏÁö¸¸ Æ®·³ÇÁ¿Í ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÁöµµÀÚ ±èÁ¤ÀºÀº 1983³â¿¡ ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ¹­¿©¼­, µµ¹ß°ú ÇÙ´ÜÃ߸¦ »ç¿ëÇÑ Ç٠Ÿ°Ý À§ÇùÀ» Çϸ鼭, ±×µé°ú ¿ì¸®µéÀÇ ¿î(ê¡)À» °É°í µµ¹ÚÀ» ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.


The Interpreter is a column by Max Fisher and Amanda Taub exploring the ideas and context behind major world events. Follow them on Twitter @Max_Fisher and @amandataub.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/14/world/asia/hawaii-false-alarm-north-korea-nuclear.html

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